Turnout isn't equal across generations and never has been. The gap between who registers and who actually votes is the single most important number in any targeting plan. Here's what the data shows about who's voting, what shifted in 2024, and what it means for how to reach each group.
The Baseline Pattern
Older voters turn out at much higher rates than younger ones. This is the most stable fact in American electoral data and it has held in every election in living memory. Per Census Bureau reporting on 2024:
- 65 and older: turnout consistently above 70%
- 45-64: high 60s
- 30-44: high 50s to low 60s
- 18-29: low to mid 40s
That 25-30 point gap between the oldest and youngest cohorts is the structural reason older voters dominate most American elections. In a low-turnout municipal race, the gap is even wider.
What Shifted in 2024
The headline shift from 2020: youth turnout came down from its 2020 peak but stayed above its pre-2018 baseline. That's meaningful. The story isn't "young people don't vote." It's "young people vote when they're given a real reason to, and they need to be reached where they actually are."
Older turnout was roughly stable. Middle-aged turnout was the most consistent across the cycles. The volatile group is always 18-29.
What This Means for Targeting
Don't treat any generation as monolithic
"Boomers vote, young people don't" is not a strategy. Within every generation there are high-propensity and low-propensity voters, and the voter file tells you which is which. Target by propensity, not by age band.
Reach younger voters earlier
Lower-propensity voters need more touches and earlier touches to convert. If you wait until the final week to start talking to 22-year-olds, you've already lost most of them. GOTV is execution, not introduction.
Match the channel to the cohort
- 65+: Facebook, CTV, mail, broadcast where the budget supports it
- 45-64: Facebook, YouTube, CTV, search
- 30-44: Meta (feed and Reels), YouTube, podcasts
- 18-29: Reels, Shorts, TikTok organic, peer-to-peer text, creator content
These are starting points. The actual mix should reflect the persuasion universe in your specific district, not a generic generational chart.
The base vote vs. expansion vote tradeoff
Reaching high-propensity older voters is cheap and reliable. Reaching low-propensity younger voters is expensive and harder to convert, but the marginal vote is worth the same. The right balance depends on the math of the race: if you're losing the persuadable older universe, fix that first. If you're winning persuadables but losing on raw turnout, the youth investment is worth it.
The Trap to Avoid
Campaigns consistently overspend on the easiest-to-reach voters and then act surprised when turnout in the hardest-to-reach groups doesn't move. The whole point of having a plan is to spend disproportionately on the voters who need the most touches to show up.
Bottom Line
Older voters turn out at higher rates. That's not going to change in 2026. But it doesn't mean younger voters are unreachable, it means they need to be reached earlier, more often, on the platforms they actually use, with content that feels real. Plan from the propensity, not the stereotype.